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Ahmad al-Sharaa  ·  2026-09-11 00:00

Oil tops $100 as Middle East conflict threatens supplies, inflation

New York, Sept. 10 (SANA)Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel Wednesday as escalating fighting between theUnited Statesand Iran and attacks on energy facilities and shipping routes heightened concerns over global supplies and rising costs for consumers and businesses.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled at $101.21 a barrel, crossing into triple digits for the first time since July, whileU.S.benchmark crude finished at $96.05 a barrel. The gains followed attacks on oil facilities and vessels in the Middle East that raised the risk of further disruptions to supplies already constrained by the conflict.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said the return of Brent above $100 reflected a market increasingly reassessing how long the Middle East conflict would continue to restrict regional supplies, according to Deutsche Welle.

Oil prices have fluctuated sharply during more than six months of conflict. Brent surged during the early stages of the war before prices fell closer to pre-war levels of around $70 a barrel in early summer amid hopes for a lasting agreement and safer oil shipments from the Gulf.

Prices rose again as hostilities intensified around the Persian Gulf, with U.S. forces destroying five Iranian oil tankers and Yemen’s Houthis striking oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, according to the Associated Press.

The attacks have increased pressure on key regional shipping routes. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities threaten oil shipments through the Red Sea, which has served as a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. forces have targeted Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and theStrait of Hormuz, according to Deutsche Welle.

The conflict has sharply disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passed before the fighting began.

China’s drawdown of large crude stockpiles and sharp reduction in imports since the conflict began helped limit the impact of supply disruptions on global oil prices, according to economists cited by CNBC.

Paul Gruenwald, global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, said at a conference in Singapore Thursday that China had helped the world avoid a much more severe energy shock as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz choked off about 20% of global energy supply.

China, the world’s largest oil buyer, sharply reduced imports after the war began and drew on accumulated inventories, easing demand pressure on international markets while cushioning its own economy from higher prices.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that China held 1.4 billion barrels of strategic crude oil inventories as of December 2025, including commercial inventories, according to CNBC. Chinese crude imports fell below 8 million barrels a day in May and June, marking their first decline since 2016.

The prolonged supply disruption has also put pressure on reserves elsewhere. Deutsche Welle reported that the U.S. oil reserve stood at 289.7 million barrels, its lowest level since 1982.

China’s ability to cushion the market could now face a test as its crude purchases recover. Chinese crude imports rose 22% month on month in July and another 6.2% in August, although they remained significantly below year-earlier levels, according to official trade data cited by CNBC.

Krishna Srinivasan, director of the International Monetary Fund’s Asia and Pacific Department, said a return of Chinese imports to their pre-war pace could deepen the impact of elevated oil prices onglobal economicgrowth.

The renewed surge in crude prices is raising broader concerns over inflation. Higher energy prices can feed through to the cost of producing and transporting food, medicines and household goods, as well as commuting and air travel.

Lukman Otunuga, market research head at global broker FXTM, described Brent’s move above $100 as a major psychological threshold for markets, saying the larger concern was what sustained high prices could mean for inflation.

Fuel costs have already risen sharply. In the United States, the average price of regular gasoline reached $4.22 a gallon Wednesday, nearly 42% above the $2.98 average before the war began, while diesel hit $5.94 a gallon, a 58% increase since the start of the conflict.

Higher diesel, jet fuel and bunker fuel prices are also increasing transportation costs for goods moved by road, rail, air and sea, while airlines have cut flights and raised fares and fees in response to higher jet fuel costs.

The Strait of Hormuz is also a major route for liquefied natural gas, which is used in producing nitrogen fertilizer. With gas supplies constrained alongside oil, theUnited Nationshas said the conflict could reduce agricultural yields and increase world hunger.

How long prices remain elevated is now a key question for markets.

Analysts at Bank of America said additional refinery outages in Russia, reduced refining activity elsewhere and sharply declining inventories have pushed diesel and gasoline prices higher globally. They raised their oil-price forecast for the second half of the year to $83 a barrel, citing more persistent disruptions to shipping through Hormuz.

The analysts said oil could reach between $95 and $120 a barrel if attacks continue to restrict traffic through the strait, while damage to major energy infrastructure could produce spikes as high as $150.

The outlook could also depend on Chinese demand. After months in which Beijing’s reduced purchases helped absorb part of the global supply shock, a sustained recovery in imports could add pressure to a market already grappling with disrupted shipping and renewed hostilities.