Uzbekistan’s water scarcity should be seen as a fundamental mismatch between demand and sustainable supply, not a temporary drought. The nation ranks 25th globally in water stress, with as much as 80% of its water sourced from transboundary rivers. This suggests that much of its water security depends on decisions made by neighboring countries and on climate phenomena outside its control, such as upstream glacier melt. Domestically, infrastructure issues compound the problem. Up to 36% of water is wasted in unlined irrigation canals. Although investment could mitigate these losses, they are now ingrained in the existing system.

The situation worsens as over 90% of the country’s surface waters are polluted, and reserves continue to diminish. Projections indicate Uzbekistan’s water deficit could reach 7 to 15 billion cubic meters by 2030. Additionally, nearly 30% of the population, especially in rural regions, faces limited access to clean drinking water.

Most of the country’s water consumption goes to irrigation rather than household use, primarily for cotton and other water-intensive crops. Despite potential improvements, increasing urban water supply efficiency alone cannot address the problem nationally. The real solution depends on agricultural policies, such as crop choices, irrigation methods, and water pricing for farmers. Since agricultural water tariffs are mostly symbolic, farmers lack strong economic motivation to adopt water-saving technologies.

The economic impacts of water scarcity go well beyond agriculture. Water shortages lower crop yields and quality, diminish export competitiveness, and heighten the risk of internal migration from severely affected areas. Essentially, the water crisis amplifies almost all other socio-economic risks the country faces.